Beijing’s September 3 commemoration– rebranded as the success of China (and currently, pointedly, Russia) in the “World Anti-Fascist War”– is not regarding background. It’s about the future. Xi Jinping is borrowing from Putin’s playbook: weaponize World War II memory, change the calendar, raise home-grown “historic fact,” and utilize it to pre-justify threat in East Asia– most importantly versus Japan and in any kind of Taiwan contingency. The optics today (Xi with Putin and Kim at a massive ceremony) were choreography for that story.
The sovereign calendar: history rewritten by day
Globally, World War II finished in the Pacific on September 2, 1945 , when Japan authorized the Instrument of Surrender aboard the USS Missouri in Tokyo Bay– an occasion documented by the united state Navy, National Archives, and major museums. Signatories consisted of the USA, China (Republic of China), the Soviet Union , the U.K., France, Australia, Canada, the Netherlands, and New Zealand. In other words, both China and the USSR were at the table.
Beijing, nevertheless, marks September 3 , just as Moscow marks May 9 rather than May 8 for Germany’s surrender (Karlshorst, Berlin). The factor is not pedantry; it’s sovereignty. Moving the day makes a “nationwide” Triumph Day, detachable from Allied authorship and attachable to modern politics.
From remembrance to doctrine
Xi’s speeches and state media structure China– now clearly together with Russia– as guardian of the “real” WWII heritage versus Western distortion. The message: the same union that “beat fascism” stands once again versus today’s “militarism” and “hegemony.” Today, the images was unmistakable: Xi supervising China’s biggest parade in years, Putin and Kim present, a martial supply from hypersonics to unmanned systems on display screen.
The historic sub-plot (minimizing U.S. aid to China; modifying the war as a China– Russia success) feeds a tactical major story: authenticity for future browbeating — especially if Japan interferes over Taiwan.
The anti-Japan card, synchronized with Moscow
As Beijing revives anti-Japanese tropes, Moscow includes accelerant. On September 2, Kremlin safety and security hawk Nikolai Patrushev openly cast Japan’s “militarisation” as a threat to Russia and China– charging Tokyo of preparing territorial insurance claims and of interoperability with NATO fleets. This is not policy analysis; it’s narrative pre-positioning.
On the water and in the air, the gray-zone is already active. Chinese coast-guard and complementary properties have steadily pressed around the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands; armed CCG hulls got in Japanese-claimed waters in 2024; by 2023, Chinese federal government ships existed near-daily in the adjoining area. These are not one-off episodes– they’re normalization by repetition.
2025– 2030: 3 plausible paths to a Sino-Japanese face-off
A. “Slow-boil coercion” (base case, 50– 60 %)
- Mechanics: consistent CCG visibility, air-space rubbing, targeted financial threat, online disruption against essential providers; lawful “salami-slicing” near the Senkaku and in the East China Sea ADIZ.
- Why it sticks: avoids automatic united state– Japan treaty triggers while laborious Japanese bandwidth and forcing risk-tolerant normalization.
- Indicators to view: more CCG hulls with deck guns/cannons inside 12 nm, PLA-N/CCG joint patterns, coordinated Russia– China marine drills in the Okhotsk/Northern Pacific belts, and escalated “anti-fascist” rhetoric keyed to Japanese politics.
B. “Crisis piggy-back” around Taiwan (worldly danger, 25– 35 %)
- Auto mechanics: during a Taiwan clog or rocket coercion, PLA pressure presses Japanese forces near Yonaguni/Ishigaki; cases occur; information ops depict Tokyo as revanchist militarist.
- Why it’s appealing: pressures the united state to divide properties; allows Beijing case protective intent.
- Deterrent: the united state– Japan security treaty; Washington’s forward position and reciprocal preparation make an intentional strike on Japan not likely– yet accidents scale quickly.
C. “Accident-to-escalation” (tail threat, 10– 15 %)
- Mechanics: a collision with casualties in Japan’s territorial sea; residential outrage + nationalist media cycles; quick ROE setting on both sides.
- Why it’s dangerous: armed forces signaling under audience expenses; third-party opportunism (Pyongyang missile examination; Russian patrols near Hokkaido) substances mistake.
- Mitigants: situation lines, trilateral de-confliction (U.S.– Japan– ROK), and public messaging that divides WWII memory from present-day plan.
Plan ramifications (for Washington, Tokyo– and Kyiv)
For the U.S.– Japan partnership:
- Treat memory-politics as part of the hazard surface. Counter-narratives should be fact-first (e.g., that signed what, when, and where) as opposed to values-only.
- Invest in left-of-boom deterrence: CCG-centric situations (non-NATO hull forms, non-lethal rejection, data-fusion for maritime domain name recognition), and public, pre-agreed escalation ladders for gray-zone events.
For Europe/NATO:
- Anticipate supply-chain shock if East Asia heats up (chips, specialty materials, shipping lanes). Practice maritime rerouting and sanctions-export controls that do not boomerang.
For Ukraine:
- A Pacific crisis thins down Western data transfer — exactly the harmony Moscow looks for. Link assents enforcement versus Russia to China-related leak (dual-use, elements, monetary rails).
- Use the docudrama record of 1945 (and of Sept 2 on the Missouri as a cognitive guard versus Moscow– Beijing historic revisionism that frames Russia’s battle as a WWII follow up.
Profits
Xi isn’t just honoring 1945; he’s operationalizing it September 3 is a political innovation: a domesticated Victory Day that modifies the actors, relocates the curtain-call, and primes the target market for the next act. If the globe found out anything from Putin’s narrative rehearsal before 2014, it’s this: when memory becomes teaching, doctrine soon comes to be plans. The partnership feedback have to for that reason start– unfashionably– with realities, and continue– unromantically– with abilities.